Image-based assessment of extracellular mucin-to-tumor area predicts consensus molecular subtypes (CMS) in colorectal cancer

The backbone of all colorectal cancer classifications including the consensus molecular subtypes (CMS) highlights microsatellite instability (MSI) as a key molecular pathway. Although mucinous histology (generally defined as >50% extracellular mucin-to-tumor area) is a “typical” feature of MSI, it is not limited to this subgroup. Here, we investigate the association of CMS classification and mucin-to-tumor area quantified using a deep learning algorithm, and  the expression of specific mucins in predicting CMS groups and clinical outcome. A weakly supervised segmentation method was developed to quantify extracellular mucin-to-tumor area in H&E images. Performance was compared to two pathologists' scores, then applied to two cohorts: (1) TCGA (n= 871 slides/412 patients) used for mucin-CMS group correlation and (2) Bern (n= 775 slides/517 patients) for histopathological correlations and next-generation Tissue Microarray construction. TCGA and CPTAC (n= 85 patients) were used to further validate mucin detection and CMS classification by gene and protein expression analysis for MUC2, MUC4, MUC5ACand MUC5B. An excellent inter-observer agreement between pathologists' scores and the algorithm was obtained (ICC = 0.92). In TCGA, mucinous tumors were predominantly CMS1 (25.7%), CMS3 (24.6%) and CMS4 (16.2%). Average mucin in CMS2 was 1.8%, indicating negligible amounts. RNA and protein expression of MUC2, MUC4, MUC5ACand MUC5Bwere low-to-absent in CMS2. MUC5AC protein expression correlated with aggressive tumor features (e.g., distant metastases (p= 0.0334), BRAFmutation (p< 0.0001), mismatch repair-deficiency (p< 0.0001), and unfavorable 5-year overall survival (44% versus 65% for positive/negative staining). MUC2 expression showed the opposite trend, correlating with less lymphatic (p= 0.0096) and venous vessel invasion (p= 0.0023), no impact on survival.