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Reliability assessment method for tank bottom plates based on hierarchical Bayesian corrosion growth model
- Source :
- Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability; February 2024, Vol. 238 Issue: 1 p112-121, 10p
- Publication Year :
- 2024
-
Abstract
- For effectively predicting the tank failure time and analyzing the key elements influencing the reliability of corroded bottom plates, this article presents a model for calculating the reliability of corroded tank bottom plates based on a hierarchical Bayesian corrosion growth model. Firstly, the growth of corrosion defect depth is expressed by the gamma process, and the hierarchical Bayesian model is used to calculate the corrosion depth growth. After that, the reliability calculation model of the corroded tank base plate is established by combining the results of the hierarchical Bayesian model with the stress-strength interference theory, and the three uncertain factors of the base plate thickness, radius, and yield strength are considered in the model. Finally, the reliability assessment and sensitivity analysis of corroded bottom plate are carried out. The results show that the proposed reliability calculation model can provide more accurate failure state prediction results than the reliability calculation model which only considers the influence of corrosion depth, and can provide reference for reducing the failure rate of tank floor and reasonably formulating the maintenance plan of tank floor.
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 1748006X and 17480078
- Volume :
- 238
- Issue :
- 1
- Database :
- Supplemental Index
- Journal :
- Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability
- Publication Type :
- Periodical
- Accession number :
- ejs65229064
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1177/1748006X221132094