Neuroanatomical and clinical factors predicting future cognitive impairment

Identifying cognitively normal (CN) older adults who will convert to cognitive impairment (CI) due to Alzheimer’s disease is crucial for early intervention. Clinical and neuroimaging measures were acquired from 301 CN adults who converted to CI within 15 years of baseline, and 294 who did not. Regional volumes and brain age measures were extracted from T1-weighted magnetic resonance images. Linear discriminant analysis compared non-converters’ characteristics against those of short-, mid-, and long-term converters. Conversion was associated with clinical measures such as hearing impairment and self-reported memory decline. Converters’ brain volumes were smaller than non-converters’ across 48 frontal, temporal, and subcortical structures. Brain age measures of 12 structures were correlated with shorter times to conversion. Conversion prediction accuracy increased from 81.5% to 90.5% as time to conversion decreased. Proximity to CI conversion is foreshadowed by anatomic features of brain aging that enhance the accuracy of predicting conversion.