Is limiting the temperature increase to 1.5°C still possible?

It is always possible to find arguments to make 1.5°C forever possible, but they increasingly diverge from reality. It is time to admit that the world will cross 1.5°C and the likelihood of returning below 1.5°C via overshoot is slim. But, failing on 1.5°C does not mean the world has failed. The Paris Agreement is about balancing risks in a ‘well below 2°C’ world, and that level of ambition remains achievable despite a less certain climate outcome. We no longer need scenarios with impossibly steep emission declines to 1.5°C, but more nuanced country-level scenarios integrating national circumstances and feasible ambitions. This is harder for researchers, but more confronting for policy makers. Crossing 1.5°C is not a time to give up but a time to acknowledge our failures and find a new hope moving forward.