EU 2030 climate targets - a perspective of an EU candidate country

On its way towards carbon free power sector in 2050, the European Union (EU) is pondering 2030 ambition level for greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions reduction and how to support the progress towards a competitive economy and a secure energy system. Hence, a new reduction target for GHG emissions of 40% compared to 1990 levels has been recently proposed, to be shared between the Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) and non-ETS sectors, as the center piece of the EU energy and climate policy for 2030. The aim of this paper is to analyze the possible implementation of the EU 2030 climate target in an EU candidate country, by making use of MARKAL energy system model. Hence, a group of mitigation scenarios labeled as “EU scenarios” were developed for the Republic of Macedonia, in line with the EU relatively ambitious path towards emissions reduction that impose an end-year type target (for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050) compared to 1990 emissions, reflecting three different levels of ambition – low, medium and high. Specifically, it was assumed that the Republic of Macedonia may have to reduce the emissions for 20-40% in 2030 and 40-80% in 2050 compared to 1990 level as the base. In all mitigation scenarios, ever-increasing carbon price is introduced beyond 2020. The results have shown that the imposed targets can be realized in Macedonian conditions. The power sector is the most important area for mitigation action, implemented through coal to gas switch, as the revitalization of the existing and investment in new coal power plants is not cost-effective mainly due to the CO2 prices, and intensified development of hydro and some wind and solar power. However, higher ambition targets might challenge the security of supply, since after 2032 the electricity import considerably increases and fully replaces the gas-fired electricity by 2050. Total cumulative investment in new power generation capacities varies between 4083 – 5500 € million, while the additional investments in distribution losses reduction, new power transmission and distribution networks and new natural gas pipeline are in the range of 366 to 840 € million.