The future of cattle breeding in light of climate change

Forecasts indicate that the world population will increase from current 7.2 billion to 9.6 billion till 2050. The combination of population growth, growing incomes and urbanization imposed enormous challenges on food and agriculture systems. On the other hand, the natural resources necessary to support global food and non-food production and agricultural services provision will not grow. Agriculture plays an important role in global environmental issues, such as climate change, land degradation, water pollution and biodiversity loss, therefore the future growth in production must be accommodated within the growing insufficiency of natural resources, including land, water and nutrients. Also, waste and greenhouse gasses (GHG) emissions must be reduced. The global livestock sector, with total GHG emissions estimated at 7.1 giga tones of CO2- eq/year (year 2005) which represent 14.5% of all anthropogenic emissions, significantly affects the environment. In terms of species, cattle are the main contributor to the sector’s emissions (65%), while in terms of commodity, beef is the main contributor with 2.9 giga tones of CO2-eq, or 41% of total sector emissions. The cattle sector, especially dairy cattle, although significantly contributing to the total GHG emissions, on the other hand, suffers significant losses due to induced climate change. Under heat stress conditions, lactating cows tend to decrease milk production as well as to increase prevalence of mastitis and fertility disorders. In many dairy- producing areas of the world heat stress conditions represent a significant financial burden (for instance $ 900 – $ 1, 500 million/year in the USA). Since dairy cattle are the contributor and the victim of ongoing climate change, application of adequate mitigation techniques is necessary to ensure the future of dairy cattle farms. There are many methods to decrease the impact of heat stress on cattle, for example shading, cooling and nutrition. Furthermore, selection of heat stress resistance could be an effective, long- term method. The other problem is sector’s GHG emission. The GHG emission intensities vary greatly among producers due to different agro- ecological conditions, farming practices and supply chain management. This variability gives opportunity to finding the adequate mitigation option. The reduction of the GHG emission could be achieved by: reducing production and consumption ; lowering the emission intensity of production ; or by combining the above mentioned. The adoption and application of mitigation techniques by majority of the world’s producers can result in significant reductions of emissions in interval from 14 to 41% depending of the selected specie, production system and world’s region. Since climate change is a global issue and livestock supply chains are increasingly internationally connected, effective mitigation actions could be achieved only by global approach. To conclude: the future of cattle breeding lies in a sustainable production system that provides an effective production of high quality meat and milk with animals selected to high heat tolerance as well as to low GHG emission per kg of product.