Optimal carbohydrate antigen 125 cutpoint for identifying low-risk patients after admission for acute heart failure

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Carbohydrate antigen 125 (CA125) has been shown to be useful for risk stratification in patients admitted with acute heart failure (AHF). We sought to determine a CA125 cutpoint for identifying patients at low risk of 1-month death or the composite of death/HF readmission following admission for AHF. METHODS: The derivation cohort included 3231 consecutive patients with AHF. CA125 cutoff values with 90% negative predictive value (NPV) and sensitivity up to 85% were identified. The adequacy of these cutpoints and the risk of 1-month death/HF readmission was then tested using the Royston-Parmar method. The best cutpoint was selected and externally validated in a cohort of patients hospitalized from BIOSTAT-CHF (n=1583). RESULTS: In the derivation cohort, the median [IQR] CA125 was 57 [25.3-157] U/mL. The optimal cutoff value was