Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon chronologies: examples from the European Lateglacial

Although there are many Late-glacial (ca. 15 000-11 000 cal. yr BP) proxy climate records from northwest Europe, some analysed at a very high temporal resolution (decadal to century scale), attempts to establish time-stratigraphical correlations between sequences are constrained by problems of radiocarbon dating. In an attempt to overcome some of these difficulties, we have used a Bayesian approach to the analysis of radiocarbon chronologies for two Late-glacial sites in the British Isles and one in the Adriatic Sea. The palaeoclimatic records from the three sites were then compared with that from the GRIP Greenland ice-core. Although there are some apparent differences in the timing of climatic events during the early part of the Late-glacial (pre-14 000 cal. yr BP), the results suggest that regional climatic changes appear to have been broadly comparable between Greenland, the British Isles and the Adriatic during the major part of the Late-glacial (i.e. between 14 000 and 11 000 cal. yr BP). The advantage of using the Bayesian approach is that it provides a means of testing the reliability of Late-glacial radiocarbon chronologies that is independent of regional chronostratigraphical (climatostratigraphical) frameworks. It also uses the full radiocarbon inventory available for each sequence and makes explicit any data selection applied. Potentially, therefore, it offers a more objective basis for comparing regional radiocarbon chronologies than the conventional approaches that have been used hitherto.