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Revealing the extent of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data
- Source :
- medrxiv
- Publication Year :
- 2020
- Publisher :
- Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, 2020.
-
Abstract
- Policy makers in Africa need robust estimates of the current and future spread of SARS-CoV-2. Data suitable for this purpose are scant. We used national surveillance PCR test, serological survey and mobility data to develop and fit a county-specific transmission model for Kenya. We estimate that the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked before the end of July 2020 in the major urban counties, with 34 - 41% of residents infected, and will peak elsewhere in the country within 2-3 months. Despite this penetration, reported severe cases and deaths are low. Our analysis suggests the COVID-19 disease burden in Kenya may be far less than initially feared. A similar scenario across sub-Saharan Africa would have implications for balancing the consequences of restrictions with those of COVID-19.
Details
- Language :
- English
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- medrxiv
- Accession number :
- edsair.core.ac.uk....1f81d08131214058c9d1eae4f70ebc2c