Simulating long term effects of policies in the agrifood sector: requirements, challenges and recommendations

Food security, natural resources and climate change related questions focusing on a longer time horizon (2050+) are gaining importance. To assess the requirements and challenges entailed with the simulation of long-term issues in the agri-food sector the JRC-IPTS carried out the project “Methodological requirements of a modelling tool for simulation of long-term (2050) effects of policies affecting the agricultural and food sectors”, involving experts for different methodologies. Partial and General Equilibrium models are covered as well as Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) and Optimal Control Theory (OCT) approaches are taken into account, evaluated and discussed.[résumé des auteurs]