Prospective testing of time-dependent neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios

Neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment. Operational issues are a pressing concern in seismic hazard assessment (SHA), as fatally evidenced by the most destructive recent events worldwide, including the Tohoku (2011) and Haiti (2010) earthquakes (Wyss et al., 2012). A reliable and comprehensive characterization of expected seismic ground shaking, eventually including the related time information, is essential in order to develop effective mitigation strategies and to increase earthquake preparedness (Peresan et al., 2012). Nowadays it is well recognized by the engineering community that standard hazard indicator estimates (e.g. seismic PGA) alone are not sufficient for the adequate design, mainly for special buildings and infrastructures (Field et al., 2000; Zuccolo et al., 2008). Moreover, any effective tool for SHA must demonstrate its capability in anticipating the ground shaking related with large earthquake occurrences, a result that can be attained only through rigorous verification and validation process (Stein et al., 2011, 2012; Peresan and Panza, 2012).