EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVES RISK MANAGEMENT USING HAIL THE DECISION TREE ON PEACHES

Kmetijska proizvodnja je odvisna od številnih dejavnikov. V največji meri pa je odvisna od vremena. Cilj študije je bil ugotoviti, ali je smiselno zavarovati pridelek ob upoštevanju navedenih vhodnih parametrov v primeru pojava toče. Uporabili smo model drevesa odločanja ob upoštevanju navedenih vhodnih parametrov za oceno tveganja pri breskvah zaradi škode toče, po predhodnem izračunu modela kalkulacij. Z drevesom odločanja smo ocenili rezultate posameznega dogodka. Za oceno potrebujemo inpute in outpute ter odnose med njimi, saj se le tako čim bolj približamo dejanski situaciji v pridelavi. Namen diplomske naloge je bil oceniti alternative upravljanja s tveganjem zaradi toče, oziroma s pomočjo modela oceniti ekonomsko upravičenost proizvodnje breskev. Ocenili smo stroške, s katerimi se srečamo v pridelavi breskev, ob upoštevanju škode s strani toče. S kalkulacijami smo ugotovili, kolikšna je najnižja ocenjena škoda, pri kateri je zavarovanje pridelka gospodarsko upravičeno. Na podlagi izračunov pričakovane vrednosti lahko trdimo, da je pričakovana vrednost prvega scenarija višja ob varianti brez zavarovanja, in sicer kljub 50 % subvencioniranju države. Pri drugem do petem scenariju (območja z večjo ogroženostjo zaradi toče) pa je pričakovana vrednost višja ob varianti z zavarovanjem. Tako lahko smatramo, da je zavarovanje pridelka na območjih z večjo ogroženostjo ekonomsko upravičeno. Agricultural production depends on many factors. The greatest extent depends on the weather. The aim of the study was to determine whether it makes sense to protect the crop having regard to their input parameters and the occurrence of hail. We used a decision tree model taking into account the above input parameters for risk assessment peaches hail damage, if pre-calculation of model calculations. The decision tree, we assessed the results of each event. To assess the need for inputs and outputs, and relations between them, in order to be as close as possible the actual situation in production. The aim of the thesis was to evaluate risk management alternatives due to hail, or through the model to assess the economic viability of production of peaches. We estimated the costs faced by the production of peaches, subject to damage by hail. The calculations we found, what is the lowest estimated damage, in which crop insurance is economically justified. Based on calculations of expected values can be argued that the expected value of the first scenario above the variant without insurance, despite the 50% subsidization of the state. In the second to the fifth scenario (areas with a higher risk due to hail), the expected value of the variant with higher insurance. So, we believe that the crop insurance in areas with high risk economically justified.