Prototyping climate-smart agricultural landscapes: a generic modelling framework and application in a tropical island

In order to seek opportunities to mitigate emissions of greenhouse gases, increase carbon sequestration and build capacity of agricultural systems to adapt to climate change, innovative climate smart agricultural landscapes satisfying multiple sustainability goals have to be designed. Whereas several qualitative methods have been proposed to design new agricultural landscapes, we lack a holistic, quantitative, spatially explicit and integrated modelling framework to design new agricultural landscapes as a function of adaptation strategies. In this paper, we propose such a modeling framework, based on a scenario approach coupled to an optimization model which prototypes cropping system mosaics at the landscape scale. The finality of the modeling framework is to identify levers for building climate smart agricultural landscapes. To simulate the land use change, our modelling framework includes a bio-economic model that explicitly accounts for scenarios of 1) policies, markets and sustainability issues, 2) farmers’ decision process and 3) cropping system performances at the field scale, under heterogeneous socio-economic and biophysical farming situations. The modelling framework also includes a set of indicators aimed at assessing quantitatively the ability of the designed landscapes to be climate-smart. The implementation of the framework in Guadeloupe, a 1800km2 tropical island, proved to be relevant since we designed prototypes of climate-smart agricultural landscape satisfying the several sustainability goals targeted: climate change adaptation, sequestration of soil C, the increase in food and energy self-sufficiency and the decrease of the risk of pollution in water catchments. By providing quantitative information on the impacts of adaptation scenarios and on the trade-offs that have to be made, the framework can help policy makers to build a “triple win” climate-smart agriculture increasing food security, adaptation and mitigation.