Application of the Mora-Vahrson Method to Assess Landslide Susceptibility in the Municipality of Manaure, Cesar, Colombia

Assessing hazardous areas is the starting point in landslide risk management. To that end, there are a series of models that allow establishing the most susceptible areas to mass movements, which represent hazards and risks to the population nearby. The Mora-Vahrson method is utilized in this study to assess the degree of landslide susceptibility of the geological units at the east of the Municipality of Manaure, in the Department of Cesar, Colombia. Additionally, possible scenarios that could be associated to geological risks of morphodynamic processes were identified. Landslide susceptibility was evaluated for two scenarios in the study area: The first scenario bases on the active figure of the Manaure fault (current situation), while the second bases on its reactivation. In the first scenario, more than 70 percent of the area has a ‘medium’ degree of susceptibility. Certain locations in the mountainous area obtained ‘high’ degrees of susceptibility. In the second scenario, susceptibility degrees increased exponentially, with ‘high’ levels in 90 percent of the study area, while the remaining 10 percent obtained ‘medium’.