Sagittal curvature of the spine as a predictor of the pediatric spinal deformity development

The sagittal curvature of the spine is hypothesized to play an important role in induction of spinal deformities in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. We previously showed an S shaped flexible rod, with the same curvature as the pediatric sagittal spinal curve, produces scoliotic-like deformities under physiologic loading. Yet, detailed characteristics of the pediatric sagittal spinal curves associated with higher risk of scoliosis are not well defined. A total of 32 patients in a population with a high prevalence of idiopathic-like scoliosis, 22q11.2 deletion syndrome (22q), were included and followed up for at least two-years. We developed a reduced order finite element model (FEM) of the sagittal profile of these 32 patients where the spine was modeled as an S shaped elastic rod. We related the geometrical parameters of the sagittal curves and the deformed FEM of the corresponding S shaped rods to the risk of scoliosis development at two-year follow-up in this cohort. Variations in the sagittal curvature in the cohort of 22q patients resulted in five different deformity patterns shown by finite element analyses. Two sagittal plane deformity pattern groups had high rate of scoliosis development (86% and 100%) whereas the other 3 groups had less than 50% rate of scoliosis development (40%, 33%, and 0%). The pre-scoliotic position of the inflection point (where lordosis turns into kyphosis), the ratio of the spinal curvatures above and below the inflection point, and the length of the spinal curve above and below the inflection point were significantly different between the five deformity patterns groups, p