Probabilities of activation of seismic faults in critical regions of the Aegean area

SUMMARY Properties of the accelerating seismic crustal deformation pattern and of the intermediateterm seismic quiescence pattern have been combined to identify faults in the Aegean area (34 ◦ N‐43 ◦ N, 19 ◦ E‐30 ◦ E) that have a considerable probability of generating strong earthquakes (M ≥ 6.4) during the next 5-yr period. Eight groups of such faults have been identified, and the probability of each fault being activated during this time period has been estimated. Three of these groups are located in southern Greece (Hellenic Arc), two in central Greece (East Central Greece, Ionian Islands), two in northwestern Turkey and one in the area of the borders of Albania, Greece and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. The importance of these results for intermediate-term seismic hazard assessment is discussed.