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Relationships between climate change, agricultural development and social stability in the Hexi Corridor over the last 2000 years
- Source :
- Science China Earth Sciences. 62:1453-1460
- Publication Year :
- 2019
- Publisher :
- Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2019.
-
Abstract
- This case study of the Hexi Corridor, Northwestern China, utilizes statistical methods to estimate quantitatively the interaction at a regional level between climate change, ancient social developments, and political coping strategies over the past 2000 years. The data is sourced from high-resolution reconstructions of climate series (temperature and precipitation), and historical records of cultivated land, war, population, and changes in regional administrative systems. The results show that moisture conditions played a more significant role than temperature in driving land reclamation in the Hexi Corridor. Analysis also showed a negative correlation between war frequency and the area of cultivated land in the Corridor over 20-year time intervals. Population growth was found to have a significant positive correlation with the cultivated land area during the study period. The results indicate that a climate-induced decline in agricultural production and the subsequent fluctuations in population could act as a trigger for social unrest, which is especially true at the mutual decadal time-scales. However, the interaction with administrative reform also suggests that, in the face of social and economic turmoil, a reasonable administrative hierarchy could strengthen the social governance of regional government, and promote social stability and economic development at a regional level. The study substantiates this notion with empirical quantitative evidence.
- Subjects :
- education.field_of_study
Government
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Corporate governance
Population
Climate change
010502 geochemistry & geophysics
01 natural sciences
Geography
Land reclamation
General Earth and Planetary Sciences
Population growth
Economic geography
Agricultural productivity
education
China
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 18691897 and 16747313
- Volume :
- 62
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Science China Earth Sciences
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi...........1353f3eda058be6f1d4fd3bd396e5457