A prolonged, two-step oxygenation of Earth's early atmosphere: Support from confidence intervals

The Great Oxidation Event (GOE), among Earth's most transformative events, marked the sustained presence of oxygen above 10−5 times the present atmospheric level. Estimates of the onset of the GOE span 2501–2225 Ma and are based primarily on the loss of mass-independent fractionation of sulfur isotopes (MIF-S) in pyrite. To better constrain the timing of the GOE, we apply probabilistic techniques to estimate the confidence intervals of four proxies: MIF-S, redox-sensitive detrital minerals, “red beds,” and I/(Ca + Mg). These GOE proxies are drawn from a highly fragmentary geologic record, and consequently, estimates of the 95% confidence intervals span tens to hundreds of millions of years—orders of magnitude larger than suggested by radiometric constraints on individual successions. Confidence interval results suggest that red beds and nonzero I/(Ca + Mg) values may have appeared earlier than 2480 Ma and 2460 Ma, respectively, whereas redox-sensitive detrital minerals and MIF-S may have disappeared after 2210 Ma and 2190 Ma, respectively. These data suggest a delay of potentially >300 m.y. between initial and permanent oxygenation of the atmosphere and a delay of tens of millions of years between onset of the Lomagundi-Jatuli carbon isotope excursion and permanent oxygenation of the atmosphere.