Operational Storm Surges Forecasting in an Estuary

The numerical model Telemac-2D, based on the nonlinear shallow water equations (depth integrated) and on the finite element approach, is used on the Gironde estuary. It is coupled with another larger scale operational storm surges model and forced by high resolution surface winds and pressure fields and by river run-off forecasts. The model was calibrated during summer 2007 on 10 selected cases that occurred during the last 25 years with important storm surges and is used real time from autumn 2007, in a pre-operational mode. It is expected to have an operational system for winter 2009, with a daily model run, for a 48-hour forecast. The installation of the system includes the training of meteorologists and hydrologists who will have to use the model results, in a collaborative manner.