Abstract PD3-02: Polygenic risk scores provide clinically meaningful risk stratification among women carrying moderate penetrance pathogenic variants in breast cancer predisposition genes: Results from the CARRIERS study

Background: Pathogenic variants detected in multi-gene cancer predisposition panels are increasingly used to counsel women regarding their risk for breast cancer. However, the clinical implications of moderate penetrance genes (e.g. CHEK2, ATM) remain unclear. Breast MRI is indicated for women with a lifetime risk of breast cancer of >20%, and polygenic risk scores (PRS) based on common variants discovered in recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) may identify women with pathogenic variants in CHEK2 and ATM who are above or below this level of risk. PRS may also stratify carriers with substantially elevated lifetime risks of breast cancer. Previous work found that PRS modified breast cancer risk in carriers of pathogenic variant in BRCA1 or BRCA2, but the joint effects of pathogenic variants and PRS have not been studied in samples drawn from the general population. There is also no published study evaluating the effect of PRS among women with pathogenic variants in genes other than BRCA1/2 and CHEK2. Here, we evaluated the joint effects of PRS and pathogenic variants in ten established breast cancer predisposition genes in a population-based case-control sample. Method: We analyzed 43,144 non-Hispanic European-ancestry individuals (20,988 controls and 22,120 cases) drawn from 7 cohorts and 2 population-based case-control studies in the CAnceR RIsk Estimates Related to Susceptibility” (CARRIERS) consortium. Targeted sequencing was performed using a dual bar-coded QIAseq panel of breast cancer predisposition genes. Variant calling was conducted with Haplotype Caller and Vardict. The PRS was calculated based on 106 common variants using effect estimates from the largest published breast cancer GWAS. Genetic status was evaluated for 10 breast cancer predisposition genes: ATM, BARD1, BRCA1, BRCA2, BRIP1, CDH1, CHEK2, NF1, PALB2 and TP53. Lasso Penalized regression was performed to assess the combined effect on overall breast cancer of pathogenic variants and common variants (including main and interaction effects between age, family history, carrier status and PRS). The fraction of women at >2-fold increased risk (which is associated with approximately 20% lifetime risk of breast cancer) was calculated for pathogenic variant carriers and non-carriers of different family history and age groups (70yrs old). Results: Among non-carriers, one standard deviation change in the PRS was associated with a 1.63x change in odds of breast cancer. The best-fitting risk model did not include any PRS-by-carrier interaction terms, implying the relative risk gradient associated with PRS among women with pathogenic variants is similar to that among non-carriers. For carriers of pathogenic variants in moderate penetrance genes with no family history of breast cancer, the PRS can identify 60.6% of ATM pathogenic variant carriers and 30% of CHEK2 pathogenic variant carriers that have less than 2-fold risk of breast cancer; when carriers have a family history of breast cancer, the PRS can identify 30% of ATM pathogenic variant carriers and 11.8% of CHEK2 pathogenic variant carriers with less than 2-fold risk of breast cancer. Conclusion: In our large, population-based case-control study, the effect of the PRS among pathogenic variant carriers was not significantly different than among non-carriers. However, the PRS may be particularly important for estimating breast cancer risk among carriers of pathogenic variants in moderate penetrance genes such as CHEK2 and ATM, enabling a more precise approach for MRI screening strategy and breast cancer risk management. Citation Format: Chi Gao, Eric C. Polley, Chunling Hu, Steven N. Hart, Rohan Gnanaolivu, Kun Y. Lee, Jie Na, Nicholas J. Boddicker, Raed Samara, Paul Auer, Leslie Bernstein, Mia Gaudet, Amy Trentham-Dietz, Song Yao, Christopher Haiman, Janet E. Olson, Susan Neuhausen, Jeffrey N. Weitzel, David E. Goldgar, Susan Domchek, Katherine L. Nathanson, Fergus J. Couch, Peter Kraft, on behalf of the CARRIERS consortium. Polygenic risk scores provide clinically meaningful risk stratification among women carrying moderate penetrance pathogenic variants in breast cancer predisposition genes: Results from the CARRIERS study [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2019 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2019 Dec 10-14; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2020;80(4 Suppl):Abstract nr PD3-02.