Decomposition of energy-related carbon emissions in Xinjiang and relative mitigation policy recommendations

Regional carbon emissions research is necessary and helpful for China in realizing reduction targets. The LMDI I (Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index I) technique based on an extended Kaya identity was conducted to uncover the main five driving forces for energy-related carbon emissions in Xinjiang, an important energy base in China. Decomposition results show that the affluence effect and the population effect are the two most important contributors to increased carbon emissions. The energy intensity effect had a positive influence on carbon emissions during the pre-reform period, and then became the dominant factor in curbing carbon emissions after 1978. The renewable energy penetration effect and the emission coefficient effect showed important negative but relatively minor effects on carbon emissions. Based on the local realities, a comprehensive suite of mitigation policies are raised by considering all of these influencing factors. Mitigation policies will need to significantly reduce energy intensity and pay more attention to the regional economic development path. Fossil fuel substitution should be considered seriously. Renewable energy should be increased in the energy mix. All of these policy recommendations, if implemented by the central and local government, should make great contributions to energy saving and emission reduction in Xinjiang.