Hazard-consistent ground motions generated with a stochastic fault-rupture model

Conventional seismic probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) of nuclear power plants consist of probabilistic seismic hazard and fragility curves. Even when earthquake ground-motion time histories are required, they are generated to fit specified response spectra, such as uniform hazard spectra at a specified exceedance probability. These ground motions, however, are not directly linked with seismic-source characteristics. In this context, the authors propose a method based on Monte Carlo simulations to generate a set of input ground-motion time histories to develop an advanced PRA scheme that can explain exceedance probability and the sequence of safety-functional loss in a nuclear power plant. These generated ground motions are consistent with seismic hazard at a reference site, and their seismic-source characteristics can be identified in detail. Ground-motion generation is conducted for a reference site, Oarai in Japan, the location of a hypothetical nuclear power plant. A total of 200 ground motions are generated, ranging from 700 to 1100 cm/s 2 peak acceleration, which corresponds to a 10 −4 to 10 −5 annual exceedance frequency. In the ground-motion generation, seismic sources are selected according to their hazard contribution at the site, and Monte Carlo simulations with stochastic parameters for the seismic-source characteristics are then conducted until ground motions with the target peak acceleration are obtained. These ground motions are selected so that they are consistent with the hazard. Approximately 110,000 simulations were required to generate 200 ground motions with these peak accelerations. Deviations of peak ground motion acceleration generated for 1000–1100 cm/s 2 range from 1.5 to 3.0, where the deviation is evaluated with peak ground motion accelerations generated from the same seismic source. Deviations of 1.0 to 3.0 for stress drops, one of the stochastic parameters of seismic-source characteristics, are required to obtain these acceleration deviations. A similar tendency can be found for some other seismic-source characteristics, meaning that ground motions obtained in this study cannot be generated by simulations of deterministic fault-rupture models with averaged seismic-source characteristics. Generated ground motions incorporate differences between each seismic-source characteristic, and they are effectively available for PRAs of structures.