Dynamical Simulation Models of the Open Source Development Process

This chapter will discuss attempts to produce formal mathematical models for dynamical simulation of the development process of Free/Open Source Software (F/OSS) projects. First, a brief overview for simulation methods of closed source software development is given. Then, based on empirical facts reported in F/OSS case studies, we describe a general framework for F/OSS dynamical simulation models and discuss its similarities and differences to closed source software simulation. A specific F/OSS simulation model is introduced. The model is applied to the Apache project and to the gtk+ module of the GNOME project, and simulation outputs are compared to real data. The potential of formal F/OSS simulation models to turn into practical tools used by F/OSS coordinators to predict key project factors is demonstrated. Finally, issues for further research and efforts for improvement of this first-attempt model are discussed.