Patterns and Dynamics of Forests: An Application of Simulation Models

Studies of forest succession characteristically rely heavily on inference to order the spatial pattern of forest stands (usually on a regularly disturbed landscape) into a temporal pattern. The inferential structure used to arrange these data is, in a sense, a “theory of succession,” and the relation between the artificially ordered successional pattern and the ordering theory are, of necessity, tautological. This circularity persists regardless of the particular theory of succession (monoclimax, polyclimax, multiple paths, etc.) to which an ecologist happens to subscribe. The fact that both the observation data sets and the theory may both be quite elaborate makes it difficult to test the theories of succession. In this chapter, we shall take an alternate approach to studying successional dynamics. Instead of a direct and long-term observation of vegetation plots or a synthetic ordering of several plots, we shall use a set of reasonably detailed computer models of forest dynamics to explore system-level responses of different ecosystems. This simulation technique does not rely upon inferences made regarding temporal and spatial scales as do empirical studies of vegetation dynamics.