A Bayesian Sequential Life Test

Detailed examination of the lifetimes of components and assemblies by means of the usual sequential probability ratio tests is often not feasible because of the prohibitive time or cost involved in such an examination. Situations commonly arise, however, where extraneous information is available (perhaps in the form of experience of similar situations or concerning the reputation of the supplier of the components or assemblies) which reflects on the current situation. Such information might be incorporated in a Bayesian analysis, but little work seems to have been done in this area. This paper presents a possible sequential life test incorporating prior information, applied to the simplest situation of components with exponentially distributed lifetimes, tested individually. The results for conventional sequential lifetests are used as a rough yardstick against which to measure the properties of the Bayesian lifetest discussed in the paper.