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Consistency and robustness of forecasting for emerging technologies: The case of Li-ion batteries for electric vehicles
- Source :
- Energy Policy. 106:415-426
- Publication Year :
- 2017
- Publisher :
- Elsevier BV, 2017.
-
Abstract
- There are a large number of accounts about rapidly declining costs of batteries with potentially transformative effects, but these accounts often are not based on detailed design and technical information. Using a method ideally suited for that purpose, we find that when experts are free to assume any battery pack design, a majority of the cost estimates are consistent with the ranges reported in the literature, although the range is notably large. However, we also find that 55% of relevant experts’ component-level cost projections are inconsistent with their total pack-level projections, and 55% of relevant experts’ elicited cost projections are inconsistent with the cost projections generated by putting their design- and process-level assumptions into our process-based cost model (PBCM). These results suggest a need for better understanding of the technical assumptions driving popular consensus regarding future costs. Approaches focusing on technological details first, followed by non-aggregated and systemic cost estimates while keeping the experts aware of any discrepancies, should they arise, may result in more accurate forecasts.
- Subjects :
- Engineering
business.product_category
Cost estimate
Emerging technologies
business.industry
020209 energy
Expert elicitation
02 engineering and technology
010501 environmental sciences
Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
01 natural sciences
Battery pack
General Energy
Risk analysis (engineering)
Robustness (computer science)
Electric vehicle
0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering
Relevant cost
Operations management
business
Technology forecasting
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 03014215
- Volume :
- 106
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Energy Policy
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi...........3a792444937d105c96f78e2b90d1a7df