Group Size Dynamics over 15+ Years in an African Forest Primate Community

Group size affects many aspects of the ecology and social organization of animals. We investigated group size stability for five primate species in Kibale National Park, Uganda from 1996 to 2011 at three nested spatial scales. Survey data indicated that group sizes did not change for most species, with the exception of red colobus monkeys (Procolobus rufomitratus), in which group size increased at all spatial scales. Mangabey (Lophocebus albigena) group size increased in old-growth forest, but the sample size and increase were small. To augment this survey data, we collected several years of demographic data on three habituated groups of redtail monkeys (Cercopithecus ascanius), eight groups of black-and-white colobus (Colobus guereza), and one red colobus group. The red colobus group increased from 59 to 104 individuals, while redtail monkey and black-and-white colobus group sizes were stable, mirroring our survey results. To understand mechanisms behind group size changes in red colobus versus stability in other primates, we monitored forest dynamics at two spatial scales between 1990 and 2013, considered changes in predator population, and explored evidence of disease dynamics. The cumulative size of all trees and red colobus food trees increased over 24 yr, suggesting that changing food availability was driving group size changes for red colobus, while predation and disease played lesser roles. Overall, our results and evidence of changing primate densities suggest that the Kibale primate community is in a non-equilibrium state. We suggest future conservation and management efforts take this into consideration.