Interaction of volcano-tectonic fault with magma storage, intrusion and flank instability: A thirty years study at Mt. Etna volcano

We investigated the relationship between the occurrence of earthquakes along the main volcano-tectonic structures and periods of volcanic unrest at Mt. Etna. We focused our study on the Pernicana Fault System (PFS), one of the most outstanding tectonic structures delineating the northern border of the sliding eastern flank of Etna volcano. During recent decades several flank eruptions have occurred at Mt. Etna and sometimes PFS released seismicity before the eruptive events, while in other cases there have been earthquakes that did not precede any eruption. To highlight a possible relation between PFS ruptures and volcanic unrest, we took into account the most energetic earthquakes (M ≥ 3.5) occurring in the last three decades (1980–2010), and considered the volcano deformation sources previously inferred by inverting geodetic data recorded during the several flank eruptions in this time interval. The estimates of stress redistribution on the PFS due to different volcano sources, such as the magma storage, the dike intrusions and the sliding eastern flank, were studied by implementing 3D numerical models that also consider the presence of topography and medium heterogeneity. Our results show that the pressurization of an intermediate storage and the traction exerted by the eastern flank sliding contribute to the seismicity along the PFS even without preceding an immediate eruption. Instead, the seismicity along the PFS related to the intrusions inside the northern sector of the volcano would represent a potential early-warning for an impending eruption at Mt. Etna.