Weakening Influence of Spring Soil Moisture over the Indo-China Peninsula on the Following Summer Mei-Yu Front and Precipitation Extremes over the Yangtze River Basin

The seasonal prediction of precipitation extremes over the Yangtze River basin (YRB) has always been a great challenge. This study investigated the effects of spring soil moisture over the Indo-China Peninsula (ICP) on the following summer mei-yu front and YRB precipitation extremes during 1961–2010. The results indicated that the frequency of summer YRB precipitation extremes was closely associated with the mei-yu front intensity, which exhibited a strong negative correlation with the preceding spring ICP soil moisture. However, the lingering climate influence of the ICP soil moisture was unstable, with an obvious weakening since the early 1990s. Due to its strong memory, an abnormally lower spring soil moisture over the ICP would increase local temperature until the summer by inducing less evapotranspiration. Before the early 1990s, the geopotential height elevation associated with the ICP heating affected the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), strengthening the southwesterly summer monsoon. Consequently, the mei-yu front was intensified as more warm, wet air was transported to the YRB, and local precipitation extremes also occurred more frequently associated with abnormal ascending motion mainly maintained by the warm temperature advection. In the early 1990s, the Asian summer monsoon underwent an abrupt shift, with the changing climatological states of the large-scale circulations. Therefore, the similar ICP heating induced by the anomalous soil moisture had different effects on the monsoonal circulation, resulting in weakened responses of the mei-yu front and YRB precipitation extremes since the early 1990s.