Abstract 13702: A Novel Genetic Risk Score Predicts Ischemic Stroke in Patients With Cardiometabolic Disease

Introduction: Recent genome-wide association studies have identified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are associated with an increased risk of stroke. We sought to determine whether a genetic risk score (GRS) could identify subjects at higher risk for first ischemic stroke after accounting for traditional risk factors in four clinical trials across the spectrum of cardiometabolic disease. Methods: Subjects who had consented for genetic testing, were of European ancestry, and had no prior history of stroke from the SOLID-TIMI 52, SAVOR-TIMI 53, PEGASUS-TIMI 54, and FOURIER trials were included in this analysis. A recently validated GRS composed of 36 SNPs associated with ischemic stroke was calculated in each patient. A Cox model was used to calculate hazard ratios for ischemic stroke across genetic risk groups, adjusted for age, sex, ancestry, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, smoking, diabetes mellitus, atrial fibrillation, coronary artery disease, and congestive heart failure. Results: In 23,089 subjects across the four trials, a total of 313 ischemic strokes occurred over a median follow-up of 3 years. Those with higher genetic risk were at significantly increased risk for ischemic stroke with an adjusted HR per 1-SD GRS of 1.12 (1.004-1.25; p=0.043). Individuals in the top 10% of genetic risk had a 42% greater hazard for ischemic stroke than those in the lower 90% of genetic risk (adjusted HR 1.42 [1.03-1.97]; p=0.034). The magnitude of risk conferred by high genetic risk was similar or greater than the risk provided by well-established clinical risk factors (Figure). Conclusions: Across four large clinical trials of subjects with cardiometabolic disease, a 36-SNP GRS was a strong, independent predictor of first ischemic stroke. The risk of stroke was particularly high in patients in the top 10% of genetic risk.