A microsimulation model of the health care system in the United States: The role of the physician services sector

Experience in the United States with Medicare, Medicaid, and other Federal programs clearly demonstrates the need to take account of factors affecting health services demand and supply in formulating and executing national health manpower policies. The research described in this paper is part of a large effort under way at the Human Resources Research Center (HRRC) to combine economic analysis, statistical estimation, and simulation techniques to develop a microsimulation model of the entire health care system. When it is completed, the HRRC model will facilitate improw)d health manpower planning by permitting forecasts of the complex interrelations between the demand and supply for health services and health manpower. Tile paper is organized into two sections. The first presents an overview of the entire model. The second describes the physician services submodel in more detail, and plans for further research.