The regional time and magnitude predictable model and its application to the Alpine-Himalayan belt

The regional time and magnitude predictable model has been introduced, and has been shown to be appropriate to describe the behaviour in the occurrence of mainshocks. The model implies that the magnitude of the preceding mainshock in a seismogenic region, that is the largest earthquake during a seismic excitation, governs the time of occurrence and the magnitude of the expected mainshock in this region. This model has been applied in 149 seismogenic regions of the Alpine-Himalayan seismic belt. The model probability for the occurrence of the next very strong main shock (Ms ≥ 6.5 during the decade 1993–2002, as well as the magnitude of this shock in each of these regions have been calculated. Furthermore, two tests have been performed to check the validity of this model. These tests have shown the reliability of the model and its superiority compared to the classical time-independent model.