Predictive Student Modeling in Block-Based Programming Environments with Bayesian Hierarchical Models

Recent years have seen a growing interest in block-based programming environments for computer science education. Although block-based programming offers a gentle introduction to coding for novice programmers, introductory computer science still presents significant challenges, so there is a great need for block-based programming environments to provide students with adaptive support. Predictive student modeling holds significant potential for adaptive support in block-based programming environments because it can identify early on when a student is struggling. However, predictive student models often make a number of simplifying assumptions, such as assuming a normal response distribution or homogeneous student characteristics, which can limit the predictive performance of models. These assumptions, when invalid, can significantly reduce the predictive accuracy of student models. To address these issues, we introduce an approach to predictive student modeling that utilizes Bayesian hierarchical linear models. This approach explicitly accounts for individual student differences and programming activity differences by analyzing block-based programs created by students in a series of introductory programming activities. Evaluation results reveal that predictive student models that account for both the distributional and hierarchical factors outperform baseline models. These findings suggest that predictive student models based on Bayesian hierarchical modeling and representing individual differences in students can substantially improve models' accuracy for predicting student performance on post-tests. By improving the predictive performance of student models, this work holds substantial potential for improving adaptive support in block-based programming environments.