Long-period ground motion in the epicentral area of major earthquakes

In view of the potential importance of long-period ground motion in the design of large structures, near-field ground displacement is computed by the elastic dislocation theory for several earthquake fault models. The validity of such computations is confirmed by comparing the computed seismogram with the observed long-period seismogram of the 1923 Kanto earthquake. The ground motions are computed for three hypothetical earthquakes, a hypothetical Kanto earthquake, Tokai earthquake and Nemuro-Oki earthquake. The location and the nature of the faulting of these earthquakes are predicted by plate tectonics and precise earthquake mechanism studies. Major conclusions are: Tokyo may suffer, in the hypothetical Kanto earthquake, ground motions about half as large as those experienced in the 1923 Kanto earthquake; Hamamatsu, a large city on the Tokai coast, may experience in the hypothetical Tokai earthquake ground motions which are as large as, or even larger than, those experienced in the epicentral area of the 1923 Kanto earthquake; the hypothetical Nemuro-Oki earthquake may cause ground motions as large as those experienced in the 1968 Tokachi-Oki earthquake on the coastal cities in Hokkaido.