(Un)predictability of sediment pathways in the transport sections of Source to Sink systems

Source to sink systems involve processes happening at very large timescales and the current state of the earth only represents a brief snapshot of it through space and time. These processes encompass any of those involved in the removal, transport and deposition of material from sources to sinks. The relatively stable incising valleys of the upland source landscapes allow for very efficient mathematical expressions to model their evolution over geological timescales. The transport part of the system is more challenging to study and resists radical simplification. Softer and lower-relief compared to their upstream counterparts, they are much more dynamics and undergo convoluted cycles of erosion/deposition/remobilisation only leaving sparse clues. The presence (or absence) of materials from identified provenance in the transport zone is commonly used to interpret landscapes connectivity through time. However, recent studies suggest that the dynamic nature of the transport section can make apparent provenance data ambiguous and misleading.In this contribution, we leverage the ability of a newly developed cellular automata landscape evolution modelling framework, CHONK, to investigate the transport zone. CHONK is a landscape evolution modelling framework combining advantages of cellular-automata methods with common eulerian ones. Equations are implemented in a cell referential and cells are processed in a lake-aware multiple flow topological order. Because everything happens within a cell before communicating with downstream landscape, this framework allows fine tracking of sediment provenance through space and time, unconditionally to which law is implemented, or how complex the landscape structure.We set up a basic mountain range with its foreland, exhume a discrete pluton of different rock type and track the pathways of the sediments through time, including in a stratigraphy allowing remobilisation. We show how, even in this simplistic setting, complex and stochastic patterns of sediment pathways arise. We explore at which degree these patterns are predictable and at extents they are stochastic – in other word we track the variability of the proportion of sediment coming from the pluton at given locations through time. Finally, adding more complexity to the settings with variable tectonic and climatic cycles, intermediate sink (lakes) and heterogeneous lithologies, we offer a perspective on the framework’s potential to study the role of sediment flux in shaping the landscape and its record in novel ways.