Numerical modeling and dynamic analysis of the 2017 Xinmo landslide in Maoxian County, China

A catastrophic landslide occurred at Xinmo village in Maoxian County, Sichuan Province, China, on June 24, 2017. A 2.87×106 m3 rock mass collapsed and entrained the surface soil layer along the landslide path. Eighty-three people were killed or went missing and more than 103 houses were destroyed. In this paper, the geological conditions of the landslide are analyzed via field investigation and high-resolution imagery. The dynamic process and runout characteristics of the landslide are numerically analyzed using a depth-integrated continuum method and MacCormack-TVD finite difference algorithm. Computational results show that the evaluated area of the danger zone matchs well with the results of field investigation. It is worth noting that soil sprayed by the high-speed blast needs to be taken into account for such kind of large high-locality landslide. The maximum velocity is about 55 m/s, which is consistent with most cases. In addition, the potential danger zone of an unstable block is evaluated. The potential risk area evaluated by the efficient depth-integrated continuum method could play a significant role in disaster prevention and secondary hazard avoidance during rescue operations.