Assessment of the Accuracy of a Model for Use in Prediction of Component Environments

Modeling and simulation to aid in decision making, such as qualification of high consequence systems, is becoming more prevalent. With this increased use of models, there arises a need to formally assess the accuracy of the model underlying these decisions. This process is referred to as model validation. Furthermore an understanding of the uncertainty in the model responses is necessary if the model is used to predict the response of internal system components for establishing their performance. These responses, presumably, cannot be directly measured and/or multiple pieces of hardware are not available to quantify their inherent variability and thus the value of the model is heightened. Additionally, requirements on component assessment that require quantification of margins, in the presence of uncertainty, provide yet another motivation to use modeling and simulation. In this paper, we describe a model validation process to assess the accuracy of a system level model and perform an assessment of the model relative to existing data.