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The shifting age distribution of people with HIV using antiretroviral therapy in the United States

The shifting age distribution of people with HIV using antiretroviral therapy in the United States

Authors :
Parastu Kasaie
Peter F Rebeiro
Kate Buchacz
Michael J. Silverberg
Elizabeth Humes
Richard D. Moore
Michael A. Horberg
Cherise Wong
Cynthia M. Boyd
Jinbing Zhang
Jennifer E. Thorne
Lucas Gerace
Cameron N Stewart
Amy C. Justice
Anna A Rubtsova
Sean X Leng
Keri N. Althoff
Kelly A. Gebo
Source :
AIDS. 36:459-471
Publication Year :
2021
Publisher :
Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health), 2021.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE To project the future age distribution of people with HIV using antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the US, under expected trends in HIV diagnosis and survival (baseline scenario) and achieving the Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) goals of a 75% reduction in HIV diagnoses from 2020-25 and sustaining levels to 2030 (EHE75% scenario). DESIGN An agent-based simulation model with mathematical functions estimated from North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design data and parameters from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's annual HIV surveillance reports. METHODS The PEARL (ProjEcting Age, multimoRbidity, and poLypharmacy in adults with HIV) model simulated individuals in 15 subgroups of sex-and-HIV acquisition risk and race/ethnicity. Simulation outcomes from the baseline scenario are compared with outcomes from the EHE75% scenario. RESULTS Under the baseline scenario, PEARL projects a substantial increase in number of ART-users over time, reaching a population of 909,638 [95%uncertaintyrange(UR):878,449-946,513] by 2030. The overall median age increased from 50 years (y) in 2020 to 52y in 2030, with 23% of ART-users age ≥65y in 2030. Under the EHE75% scenario, the projected number of ART-users was 718,348 [703,044-737,817] (median age=56y) in 2030, with a 70% relative reduction in ART-users

Details

ISSN :
14735571 and 02699370
Volume :
36
Database :
OpenAIRE
Journal :
AIDS
Accession number :
edsair.doi...........5ff25e72b43480925e72795e1471bdc6
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1097/qad.0000000000003128