Multi-locus genotype-based modeling reveals that rising temperatures can stabilize the flowering date of winter wheat

Flowering-date stability is crucial for global adaptability of wheat to sustain a high grain yield within broad temperature ranges; however, the response mechanism of such stability to climate change remains unclear. Here, we developed a multi-locus genotype based (MLG-based) ecophysiological model to predict wheat-flowering date that allowed for the linkage of key photoperiod (Ppd) and vernalization (Vrn) genes to wheat flowering. The MLG-based model was then applied to reveal the responses of wheat-flowering-date stability to different allelic combinations under projected climatic conditions across the Northern China winter wheat Region. The results showed that the stability of the flowering date for wheat could be enhanced under projected RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 global warming scenarios with allelic combinations of major Vrn and Ppd genes. Our findings highlight the potential of introducing allelic combinations of the winter allele vrn-D1 and photoperiod-insensitive genes (Ppd-D1a) into currently-cultivated varieties in order to maintain a more stable flowering date, especially under future climate conditions.