Grid expansion planning considering probabilistic production and congestion costs based on nodal effective load model

This paper describes an alternative method for grid expansion planning considering construction cost, probabilistic production cost, congestion cost and outage cost of a grid at a composite power system derived from a simulation model. In this paper, a heuristic scenario method is proposed to choose the least cost solution (scenario) among various scenarios cosidering candidate new lines. The characteristics and effectiveness of this simulation model are illustrated by the several case studies on a 21-bus test system.