Dynamic Modeling of New Technology Succession: Projecting the Impact of Macro Events and Micro Behaviors On Software Market Cycles

The subject of technology succession and new technology adoption in a generalized sense has been addressed by numerous authors for over one hundred years. Models which accommodate macro-level events as well as micro-level actions are needed to gain insight to future market outcomes. In the ICT industry, macro-level factors affecting technology adoption include global events and shocks, economic factors, and global regulatory trends. Micro-level elements involve individual agent actions and interactions, such as the behaviors of buyers and suppliers in reaction to each other, and to macro events. Projecting technology adoption and software market composition and growth requires evaluating a special set of technology characteristics, buyer behaviors, and supplier issues and responses which make this effort particularly challenging.