'Small earthquake modulation window' and its applications in medium-term prediction

Based on the observations of many years, it has been found that “small earthquake modulation windows” exist in the situation of some special geological structures, which respond sensitively to the variations of regional stress fields and the activities of earthquake swarms greater than moderate strong magnitude, and can supply some precursory information. More than two “small earthquake modulation windows” can also provide a general orientation of the first main earthquake of a earthquake cluster. Compared with “seismic window” based on frequency it is no doubt that the “modulation-window” has an unique characteristic of applicational significance to medium-term earthquake prediction with a time scale of two or three years.