Building storylines for applications: what have we learned in the EUCP project?

The European Climate Prediction system (EUCP) project aimed to lay the foundation for a future regional climate prediction system for Europe. An important element of this is the role of narrative or storylines approaches in data production and scientific investigation, as well as a user product. We will present the results of our investigations which sought to understand the potential advantages and challenges in developing physically based climate storylines as part of a climate service by addressing the questionsWhat are climate storylines and where are they useful? How could storylines bring together various outputs of EUCP state-of-the-art climate science attempting to reduce uncertainty and complexity in climate projections, and seamlessly combine them with decadal predictions? What are the challenges of producing them as a service? The body of EUCP work included two case studies of co-producing storylines as a user product, revealing the potential usefulness for applications. These included the heritage and water supply management sectors which are at different stages of adaptation management. We also reflect on the potential of event-based future storylines: one using a convection-permitting model to provide attribution statements for the Copenhagen flooding event in July 2011 and another using large ensembles to construct storylines of the European summer 2018 drought under different pseudo-global warming. Novel scientific studies were also performed which could form the scientific building blocks of climate storylines including an algorithmic clustering approach and approaches to producing more realistic climate variability. Finally, we will present a tool for performing multiple lines of evidence assessments that could aid storylines development.