Two invasive Hieracium species’ potential distributions within the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem were defined using invasion susceptibility models and habitat typing

Invasive Hieracium plant species are invading the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. The potential distribution of orange hawkweed (Hieracium aurantiacum) and meadow hawkweed (Hieracium caespitosum) were estimated using habitat susceptibility models to assist land managers’ management of these invasive plants. The objectives of this study were to: (1) develop models describing susceptibility of ecosystems to hawkweed invasion, (2) identify indicator species of orange hawkweed and meadow hawkweed, (3) determine habitat types where these invasive hawkweeds might occur, and (4) create habitat susceptibility maps for management planning and ground surveys. Models were developed using a Mahalanobis distance similarity technique from remotely sensed biotic and abiotic variables, as well as known location data for orange and meadow hawkweed. Ground validation was conducted to assess model weaknesses and subsequent model modification. Indicator plant species were identified as surrogates to determine the likelihood of hawkweed presence during ground survey. Transect data collected from areas susceptible to invasion also were used to determine habitat types where hawkweed might occur. The best model included eight variables: north–south aspect, east–west aspect, slope, NDVI, NDWI, blue spectral band, green spectral band, and precipitation. High susceptibility (65 + % likelihood of suitable habitat) consisted of 66,000 ha for meadow hawkweed and 35,000 ha for orange hawkweed, 5.0% and 2.7% of the study area, respectively. Meadow hawkweed and orange hawkweed had seven and three indicator plant species, respectively. Predicted hawkweed habitat susceptibility encompassed nine habitat types, ranging from xeric sagebrush steppe to wet forests and they overlapped except at the xeric habitat type. Habitat susceptibility models save costs and allow survey prioritization to those areas most susceptible to invasion.