Evidence of Marginal Deterrence: Kidnapping and Murder in Italy

Empirical evidence of the marginal deterrent effect is provided. Exploring a data set of kidnapping crimes in Italy between 1960 and 2012 changes in Italian policy regarding sanctions for kidnapping and their associated impact on murders is considered. Deaths associated with kidnappings increase in prevalence when the kidnapping sanction increased, causing a decrease the marginal sanction for murder. Death rates reversed when enhanced sanctions for murder were later introduced.