Effects of volitional emigration timing and smolt size on survival and age-at-return in a Pacific salmon hatchery population

Many Pacific salmon populations are returning from sea at younger ages and smaller sizes. Hatchery culture, management practices, and environmental factors influence juvenile release size and emigration timing, which in turn affect important demographic characteristics in returning adults. We analyzed data from approximately 345,000 tagged spring Chinook Salmon juveniles exiting Cle Elum Supplementation and Research Facility (Yakima River, Washington, USA) acclimation sites over thirteen brood years (2002–2014), evaluating smolt size, emigration timing, river flow, juvenile survival, and age-at-return. We observed a relationship between size and volitional exit timing of smolts from acclimation sites, with larger fish tending to emigrate earlier than smaller fish. Early emigration was also coincident with lower river flows near acclimation sites. Later emigration timing was correlated with an increase in apparent survival of juveniles to Bonneville Dam (500–530 km downstream of acclimation sites), but also with a lower rate of survival to return from sea. In general, for juveniles successfully emigrating downstream of Bonneville Dam, age-at-return increased with decreasing juvenile fish size and later emigration timing. Our results support a growing body of evidence that hatchery practices may result in larger smolts that tend to return at younger ages. Given the biological and economic consequences of younger age-at-maturation, methods to reverse this trend should be further explored and implemented.