Calculation of the Lightning Potential Index and electric field in numerical weather prediction models

Modern methods for predicting thunderstorms and lightnings with the use of high-resolution numerical models are considered. An analysis of the Lightning Potential Index (LPI) is performed for various microphysics parameterizations with the use of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The maximum index values are shown to depend significantly on the type of parameterization. This makes it impossible to specify a single threshold LPI for various parameterizations as a criterion for the occurrence of lightning flashes. The topographic LPI maps underestimate the sizes of regions of likely thunderstorm-hazard events. Calculating the electric field under the assumption that ice and graupel are the main charge carriers is considered a new algorithm of lightning prediction. The model shows that the potential difference (between the ground and cloud layer at a given altitude) sufficient to generate a discharge is retained in a larger region than is predicted by the LPI. The main features of the spatial distribution of the electric field and potential agree with observed data.