Technological innovation diffusion: the proliferation of substitution models and easing the user's dilemma

The proliferation, assumptions, motivation, and behavior of various substitution models of the technological diffusion process are explored. The underlying notion is that such an understanding helps the model user to choose the most appropriate model for the situation. The authors discuss the development, motivation, and assumptions of various deterministic and binary substitution models and compare them on the basis of their three mathematical characteristics. It is shown that the study of the interrelationships between the models is useful in narrowing the choice. The behavior of the models is studied through an illustration of diffusion of innovative oxygen-steel technology in Spain and in Japan. >