An Analysis of the Post-earthquake Fire Safety of Historic Buildings in Kyoto, Japan

Relative to other cities in Japan, Kyoto contains an outstanding agglomeration of historic buildings. These historic buildings are crucial for maintaining Kyoto’s irregular ranking as a historical city. However, several active faults occur near Kyoto that could cause severe seismic damage to the city. Thus, post-earthquake fire is one of the most threatening potential disasters that could destroy Kyoto’s invaluable historic buildings. Here, the post-earthquake fire safety of 2,131 historic buildings in the city of Kyoto was analyzed. This analysis was conducted by Monte Carlo simulation with a physics-based urban fire spread model that was formerly developed by the author. This scenario assumes the three following exclusive events that lead to the burn-down of historic buildings: (I) the ignition in the vicinity of the target historic building; (II) inadequate firefighting activity during the initial stage of the fire; and (III) the occurrence of widespread fire in urban areas following ignition. In general, the post-earthquake fire safety of designated and registered historic buildings was greater than that of undesignated and unregistered historic buildings. In addition, in the worst case scenario, 30% of the national treasures and important cultural properties would be damaged in the center of Kyoto city.