Prediction of Garlic Price Based on ARIMA Model

In recent years, garlic prices have fluctuate drastically, and garlic price prediction has always been the focus of attention. In order to study the price fluctuations of garlic and predict garlic prices, the most commonly used time series forecasting method autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is used in this article to predict garlic prices. Combining the monthly average price data for 2010–2017 in Shandong, China, which is representative of the world. Using the powerful data analysis function of R language, forecast the monthly average price of garlic in the first half of 2018 in Shandong province. The results of experiment show that the ARIMA model has good effect in predicting the short-term garlic price fluctuation, and the garlic price fluctuation trend in the first half of 2018 is to rise first and then fall. Finally, according to several major factors which affecting the price fluctuation of garlic, some suggestions such as the establishment of garlic growth model, the improvement of forecast methods, and the strengthening of market supervision are proposed.